For weeks, New York’s 23rd district was the center of national attention. Sarah Palin, Rush Limbaugh and Joe Biden squared off for the votes of this rural district bordering Canada in a contest that was hailed to be a referendum on Obama’s policies and on whether the Republican party should move to the center or Right.
In a circus of an election, the liberal Republican Scozzafava withdrew after a thorough haranguing in the national conservative media for her pro-abortion, pro-stimulus package positions. Scozzafava backed the Democrat, Bill Owens, against the Conservative Party candidate Bill Hoffman.
Hoffman energized the conservative base of the nation in a fight not only against the Democrats and Obama, but even more for power within the Republican party. The message conservatives wanted to send is clear: We don’t need the Republican party, they need us.
The results were in yesterday, though as often seems to be the case in recent American politics this race could end up in the courts. Separated by less then a thousand votes with 88 percent of precincts reports and a flurry of absentee ballots on their way, it could be a long wait to know the undisputed winner.
The spin-centers are already throwing out their interpretations of the results. Some declare it a conservative victory even if Hoffman loses, since he stood toe-to-toe against Democrats and liberal Republicans and at least almost won.
Others, however, are seeing it as a dangerous sign that the Republican Party will become an unwelcome place for moderates and argue that this kind of ideological purity movement will make it impossible to win in most areas of the country.
A particularly insightful article by Nate Silver on CNN.com argues that the defeat of Hoffman shows that, indeed, all politics are local. Hoffman has few roots in the 23rd district and 95 percent of his campaign funds came from organizations outside the district. He was more the candidate of the national conservative movement then of New York’s 23rd. Even though the 23rd has not elected a Democratic congressman in 16 years, the fact that Hoffman was an outsider may have been his undoing.
Yet, lets look at the 23rd in the context of everything that happened on Tuesday. Maine’s same-sex marriage law was repealed by popular referendum, “despite far more money, ground troops and political support” (NYT) for the pro-same-sex marriage side.
This vote is incredibly significant, because in almost every state same-sex partnerships have been legalized either by legislative or judicial means. Maine (and California’s Prop. 8) indicates that when this issue is put directly to voters, the trend is overwhelmingly conservative.
Republicans won the gubernatorial races in both Virginia and New Jersey, though national media has argued that local issues heavily defined these races and that both states show high levels of support for Obama. However, we cannot underestimate the psychological effect for the Republican party of an (almost) across the board sweep of the elections on Tuesday.
After yesterday’s successes and continually dismal economic reports, look forward to a revitalized conservative movement and Republican Party going into the midterm elections next fall.
Alex • Nov 7, 2009 at 1:02 pm
First of all, of course I mentioned right off the bat that it was national leaders that were squaring off over the 23rd, naturally Hoffman is just a local businessman, but he did have the initiative to begin a campaign as a third party and only later did he garner national attention.
Second, obviously not every state has legalized same-sex marriage, you have to twist my sentence pretty strongly to make that claim. It is clear that I mean in every state WHERE it has been legalized it was by court order or the legislature. You never reject my actual argument, which is that when put to referendum votes of the entire state gay marriage has faired badly. In fact, you support my argument that same-sex marriage is basically on the whole unpopular (and hence that the majority of the nation is conservative on this issue).
Thirdly, Obama does enjoy high levels of support in Virginia. You imply winning by 6 percent is some kind of narrow victory. In reality that is a very substantial margin for such a conservative state. Also, I’m not the only one who has claimed this. You can look at: http://www.time.com/time/politics/article/0,8599,1934399,00.html if you want another commentary on this point. The important thing is that well into his term, he still has commanded a majority of approval which is impressive given the polling didn’t include many blacks or young voters. You can look at: http://www2.timesdispatch.com/rtd/news/state_regional/state_regional_govtpolitics/article/POLL09_20090708-222404/278902/ for that poll.
Finally, where did I quantify anything? Did I say that the Republican victories gave a 30 percent greater advantage going into 2010? Of course not, I just said that Republicans will be energized. I said they would be energized by an almost crushing victory across the board, and let me tell you they are. That is a qualitative statement. You should make sure to understand such terms before using them to attack an idea.
Becquer Medak-Seguin • Nov 7, 2009 at 7:42 am
Alex, several of your claims and suggestions are off the mark.
You claim “Hoffman energized the conservative base of the nation.†Of course, Hoffman didn’t energize anything. It was Sarah Palin, Rush Limbaugh, Glenn Beck and other conservative pundits, elected officials, celebrities, etc. that did the “energizing.†They injected coverage (via Fox News) and exerted influence, evidenced by the socially forced withdrawal of GOP nominee Scozzafava, in New York’s 23rd. Hoffman was upheld merely as a figurehead of that “movement.†Indeed, his speeches were monotone, poorly written, and, ultimately, pathetic. Though, that’s not his fault; he likely didn’t expect to receive such overwhelming (and unnecessary) national coverage.
You claim “in almost every state same-sex partnerships have been legalized either by legislative or judicial means.†Of course, same-sex marriage is only legal in five of the 50 states – Massachusetts, Connecticut, Iowa, Vermont, and soon New Hampshire – and only 14 states – California, Colorado, Hawaii, Maine, New Jersey, Nevada, Oregon, Washington, and Wisconsin – grant same-sex civil unions or officially recognized partnerships. The rights same-sex partners in the latter group of states, however, are limited and by no means progressive. Thus, more than 60 percent of the nation is still legally ambivalent or hostile toward same-sex couples.
You suggest that Virginia had “high levels of support for Obama.†Obama won Virgina by less than 6 percent. I would hardly call 52 percent of the population a high level of support.
Finally, you attempt to quantify the results of these elections as a psychological boost to the Republican Party. Quantifying psychology, dare I say, is impossible and shoddy. I suggest otherwise.