The Oscars may be Hollywood’s biggest night, but the months leading up to it are perforated with incessant and obnoxious discussion. Night ruining, unexplainable twists and turns all lie shuffled in the card deck of possibility. My favorite film could walk away empty handed! Will Smith could slap Chris Rock! “F1″ could win best picture, for crying out loud! The least I can do in the meantime as a futile method of consolation is try and predict the unpredictable.
Original Screenplay – “Sinners”
My Choice – “Sentimental Value”
Coogler’s unique balancing act in “Sinners” is a feat within itself and it’s sure to win him a plethora of other categories throughout the night, but the weakest part of the film to me was its script. Despite an excellent first act, this film just can’t figure out how to land and ends up overstaying its welcome by 20-30 minutes (don’t even get me started on the end credits scene).
Adapted Screenplay – “One Battle After Another”
My Choice – “One Battle After Another”
At this point, PTA should just be given the “Lifetime Achievement for Adapting Pynchon Into Profitable Films” Award. As much as I adore “Inherent Vice” – and adore that film I do, my favorite of his by a mile – “OBAA”’s script might be one of the most impressive achievements of his writing career. Tight, nuanced, close to the source material, but not too much, this should be a big win among many for the big man.
Cinematography – “One Battle After Another”
My Choice – “Train Dreams”
As great as “OBAA” looks and as revelatory as that climactic car chase scene is, there’s just something about Adolpho Veloso’s eye in “Train Dreams” I can’t get out of my head. The way he captures the rural beauty of the Pacific Northwest, the lush forests, blue orange skies, grays and browns of the railroad and dirt felt so essential to the holistic experience of such a film. It’s one of my favorites of the year and I don’t see it getting much else, so I’m rooting for it here.
Directing – Paul Thomas Anderson
My Choice – Paul Thomas Anderson
Following the Directors Guild Awards and the Golden Globes, I’m almost certain with my lock here, especially considering how in sync the former tends to be with the academy on these things. I could, however, see a world in which Ryan Coogler sneaks into this one by some chance and I would only be a little mad about it.
Supporting Actress – Wunmi Mosaku, “Sinners”
My Choice – Inga Ibsdotter Lilleas, “Sentimental Value”
Frankly, I’m quite content with any of the nominees listed except for Amy Madigan’s schtick performance in “Weapons”. It’s incredibly unlikely either of the “Sentimental Value” girls will win, unfortunately, but Mosaku or Teyana Taylor are both deserving recipients (the former especially compels both myself and the Academy a little more, I imagine).
Supporting Actor – Sean Penn, “OBAA”
My Choice – Sean Penn, “OBAA”
This one’s tough for me, considering Stellan Skarsgard in “Sentimental Value” is one of the rawest performances I’ve seen from the 74 year old. That’s saying a lot, considering his prolific filmography. Sean Penn is just unavoidable, I fear, an absolute force of hilariously realistic evil. This one’s a lock.
Actress in a Leading Role – Jessie Buckley, “Hamnet”
My Choice – Rose Byrne, “If I Had Legs, I’d Kick You”
This is the contentious one. The nailbiter, the one that’s gonna keep you up at night. This is the one they’re gonna be talking about years down the line. I just can’t see it not going to Buckley. It’s a great performance, no doubt essential to the film, but it just feels a bit too one dimensional to me. Byrne is electric, layered, everywhere all at once, and arguably more important within her respective film. Either way, people will be annoyed about this one.
Actor in a Leading Role – Michael B Jordan, “Sinners”
My Choice – Leonardo Di Caprio, “OBAA”
This one’s a little less contentious simply because there are so many ways it could go. Timothee could still pull it off despite a late surge so close to the finish line. And Leo would be cemented as one of the all timers if he got his second. I think the Academy will lean slightly towards MBJ here because of the two characters’ schtick, but I really hope they don’t.
Best Picture – “One Battle After Another”
My Choice – “Sentimental Value”
Please don’t be “Sinners”. This one is silly because it is so obviously between “OBAA” and the aforementioned “Sinners”, but I don’t think Best Foreign will be enough for Joachim Trier’s “Sentimental Value”. My favorite film of the year, best picture winner in my book. The current political climate and subsequent neoliberal response will propel PTA to a night full of firsts. Please don’t be “Sinners”.
