If you’ve been wondering what global warming has to do with peace anyway, let me help you out. I want to talk about natural resources in Iraq today, a nation not experiencing a great deal of peace, as we all know.
Iraq has limited natural resources that are crucial to its economy and that are inextricably intertwined with politics in the region. It has a lot of oil and natural gas, of course, and it’s home to both the Tigris and Euphrates rivers. It has access to the Persian Gulf in its southeast corner, which is extremely important for shipping. You can’t talk about peace in Iraq without discussing its geography.
Ninety-five percent of government revenue in Iraq comes from oil, which means that the vast majority of Iraqis depend heavily on this resource. The majority of oil production is in Kurdistan in the north and Shiite-controlled Rumaylah province in the south. More oil exploration can be done in the Sunni center of the country, but it isn’t currently producing anywhere near the amount that the other regions are.
Oil disputes have been in the news lately because Kurdistan has made several international deals without the permission of the central government. The Kurdish minority wants to be able to make these deals and use the revenue from their fields for their region, and the Sunni minority, without many oil fields, wants the central government to control all the oil because they worry that otherwise they will get a smaller share of its profits. The Shiite majority is desperately trying to balance these competing interests.
Oil is a resource that might seem unaffected by global warming, but it is worth noting that Iraq is planning to restart its economy on a fuel that many developed countries are trying to phase out. Many oil companies are trying to prepare fast for changing times by investing in alternative energy sources. Iraq will probably have many years of oil profits ahead, but it’s pretty safe to assume that eventually they’re going to have to be able to do something else, too.
What else can they do? Agriculture. Prior to sanctions in the ’90s, Iraq contributed significantly to the world supply of dates. When it comes to farming, the Sunnis have the best situation, because the rivers run down through their part of the country (Kurdistan is mostly too mountainous for farming). The Tigris and Euphrates supply 35,250 square kilometers of irrigation. That irrigation is necessary because the south and west of Iraq are desert, which is slowly growing.
The Tigris and Euphrates Rivers supply water to all of Iraq. They are absolutely crucial to its economic security, and thus are a flashpoint for political unrest in the region, partially because the two rivers pass through Turkey and Syria on the way to Iraq. In 1990, when Turkey opened the Ataturk Dam on the Euphrates, they literally shut off the river to Iraq for a month, causing panic and economic hardship.
The Tigris and Euphrates rivers both depend heavily on snow melt from the mountains of Turkey, and will be particularly susceptible to changes from global warming, because temperature affects the percentage of precipitation that falls as snow. Both rivers are heavily developed, with many dams, and so do not have an enormous amount of leeway for decreased flow. Decreased snow melt in Turkey could have far-reaching impacts for Iraq and Syria, and, as the International Congress on River Basin Management points out, environmental changes in the Tigris and Euphrates have high potential for being mistaken as intentionally caused, politically motivated changes. Peace between Turkey, Syria and Iraq depends on water to a significant degree.
All this is simply to point out how crucial natural resources are to maintaining peace in Iraq and the Middle East, and to suggest how global warming can directly affect prospects for peace. Water is the secret key that turns the Middle East, and yet it is rarely in the news. This is a foolish omission.