In a lecture at Whitman last Thursday, Nov. 8, peak oil expert Richard Heinburg said that unless the world makes drastic carbon reductions, we will soon face a complete breakdown of our social order as well as our biosphere.
“We’re performing a giant science experiment with the earth’s atmosphere,” said Heinburg in regard to global warming.
Heinburg said that even the severe policy recommendations of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) glossed over the extreme measures that the world must take to avoid the worst consequences of a changing climate. He said that carbon is accumulating faster in the atmosphere than previously thought and so the IPCC warning to keep global temperature from rising more than two degrees above pre-industrial levels won’t be enough.
Heinburg doubted that any climate agreement in the near future would guarantee the more than 90 percent reductions in carbon dioxide output necessary. He said that contrary to much of the current political rhetoric, it is simply not possible to continue our rate of industrial growth while still maintaining what he refers to as “carbon equity.”
However, Heinburg hopes that supply shortages will serve as a wake-up call. Heinburg spoke about the declining rate of new oil discoveries and read quotes about oil decline from major oil companies before asserting that all liquid fuels, including oil, will peak in 2010. He expects coal to peak in the next 10-15 years, beginning in China.
This peak in fossil fuels, while potentially devastating to economies worldwide, could stop us from entirely destroying our environment.
“Most predictions of future CO2 emissions will never be realized. The IPCC predicts high emissions up until 2100 without taking into account supply constraints,” said Heinburg.
But unless governments take measures to prepare for this peak, Heinburg foresees devastating impacts for trade, manufacturing and farming as well as international conflicts over resources.
“No nation is prepared to deal with the high prices and shortages for energy that will soon begin to work their way through the entire global economic system,” said Heinburg.
The information, as terrifying as it was, wasn’t surprising to many community members in the audience.
“It was just as scary as I thought it was,” said community member Steve Luckstead.
This lecture was part of the Global Change, Local Challenge conference put on by all three Walla Walla colleges to increase awareness and provide an informed foundation for local decision-making.
Heinburg suggested some changes that need to be made at the local level.
“Communities should draw up post-petroleum plans, thinking about alternatives to cars such as an electric light rail system. We need food security, meaning we need to re-localize our food production,” said Heinburg.
After Heinburg spoke, a panel consisting of Whitman Professor Don Snow, Walla Walla Community College (WWCC) President Steven VanAusdle and Local Governments for Sustainability Program Officer Amy Shatzkin gave their opinions on what needs to be done locally.
“I want to give some optimism. Many local governments are already altering their infrastructure, and already 29 cities in the Northwest have signed on to the Mayors Climate Protection Agreement to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions by seven percent by 2012,” said Shatzkin.
Shatzkin stressed that actions taken to decrease carbon emissions also improve community livability by insulating houses or planting more trees.
VanAusdle insisted that the Northwest is known around the world for being environmentally friendly, and he thinks we can take a leadership role. He said that on the WWCC campus, the real challenge would be re-inventing campus culture.
When the floor was opened up for questions, Randal Son from Many Waters Community Development stood up and gave a strong reality check to the feel-good ideas that were being discussed.
“I was just at the Walla Walla County Planning Commission. Everyone here is talking about changing our infrastructure, but there were only five people at that meeting, and one was the lawyer who was paid to be there. We have to make our voices heard,” said Son.
At the reception afterward hosted by Whitman’s Campus Climate Challenge, other community members echoed the sentiment that not enough was being done in Walla Walla to combat climate change and resource depletion.
“There is nothing being done in Walla Walla. We’re trying to undo our recycling program for chrissake. There is a core group of citizens that save us every time, but most people don’t care,” said community member Beth Call.
“Walla Walla doesn’t have a comprehensive plan. There’s a small chance this [conference] will open up the issue; I hope it does,” said community member Larry Nulkerin.
